These are the RealVail archived files. Please visit our new site:
MM_XSLTransform error.
Error opening
Perhaps not a landslide, but an earthquake instead: proven prediction method picks Obama in '08
Democratic presumptive nominee Barack Obama, shown here speaking at a Thornton School earlier this year, has been predicted to win this November’s popular vote by Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential race since 1984.
By Tom Boyd 

Perhaps not a landslide, but an earthquake instead: proven prediction method picks Obama in '08

By David O. Williams

August 25, 2008 —  Predicting the future is usually the stuff of legends and prophets – but in some ways it’s also the realm of science. While journalists and delegates converge on Denver for the Democratic National Convention this week, two scientists have already determined who will come out the winner in November’s presidential election.

As the Washington Post reported this morning, their highly-reliable prediction method chooses Obama to win the popular vote this November.

Allan Lichtman, a historian, and Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a geophysicist, have correctly predicted every election since 1980. According to the Post, the pair first met over dinner more than 25 years ago, and by the end of the evening they had combined the knowledge in their two fields to develop a nascent mathematical means to correctly predicting election results.

Rather than study the up-close and personal interrelations of American Politics, the duo borrow methods from the study and prediction of earthquakes. By taking a big-picture view of what’s happening in American Politics the two found a way to correctly predict the outcome of the popular vote in every presidential election since they devised the method in 1981, as well as 128 of 150 mid-term Senatorial elections, according to Wikipedia.

Lichtman predicted Al Gore as the winner of the 2000 race because his method predicts the outcome of the popular vote, not the electoral college. The method looks at certain “key” political factors to determine if there will be “stability” or “upheaval” during an election. Those keys include the absence or presence of a recession, the presence of a major policy victory in the previous term, and a third-party candidate who won five or more percent of the overall vote.

This November, in a paper in the International Journal of Forecasting, Licktman’s prediction for this November was an earthquake – in Obama’s favor.



Comment on article  Comment on "Perhaps not a landslide, but an earthquake instead: proven prediction method picks Obama in '08" using the form below


Comment Form Info  Comment Information
RealVail encourages you to post comments on our articles and blogs. Name and email are required for monitoring purposes. Your email will not be published and will not be distributed to any 3rd-party. Abusive, obscene, profane, threatening, libelous or defamatory comments are prohibited. By posting a comment, you agree to this policy and our terms of use. To report an abusive posting, please contact us.

Please enter the case-sensitive letters you see in the left box to prove that you are human and indeed reading this page. This prevents spam and malicious attacks. Click the refresh icon to refresh words.

To comment or contact us, please visit our new site at Snow Report Ticker

more new stories...

more new stories...

more resort guides...