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The Powder Predictor
RealVail Weather Watch Blog
Snow, now wetter, should continue
Snowflakes will form differently depending on the moisture levels, which were relatively high in our last snowstorm.
 

Snow, now wetter, should continue

By Reid Griebling

February 26, 2008 —  Another round of snow will impact our area moving in from the northwest later today, Feb. 25, and remaining through the night. Gusty winds will again be arriving just before the low pressure system with winds in the 20-30 mph range over the ridge tops and gusts into the 40s. This weak system is the second half of the storm that dropped good amounts of snow on us last night (Feb. 24).


There is another good chance of accumulating snow with this system as we see good amounts of moisture, cooler temps (teens-low 20s), and favorable winds that should enhance orographic lift, also known as the "toilet bowl" affect by some locals.


Forecasters are calling for 4-6 inches to fall overnight, and with the windy conditions we should see most of the tracks from today (Feb. 25) fill up. I think we could see a bit more, anywhere from 5-10 inches, again, by the morning of Feb. 26.


Both Vail and Beaver Creek ski patrol reported good amounts of snow this morning with Vail adding 10 inches and the Beav' with 9 inches. Both areas also reported snow density at 10 percent, pretty wet for our area, typically we will see snow density in the 5-8 percent range.

Moving into the month of March, with only 49 days on the ski calender as of today, we will begin to see very different weather. We might see three days of 40 degree temps, and suddenly watch a cold front move in and drop 12 inches of snow.


Remember, March is annually one of our wettest months. With that in mind, we will begin to see different types of snow fall on the ground. The most common "springish" type of snow we will see is graupel, also known as soft hail. This type of snow will usually precede a cold storm after days of warm weather.


Graupel is associated with warm temperatures at the surface and cooling temps in the air masses above. I have listed a link below that has charts and some interesting info on all types of snow that falls from the sky. As I mentioned, we are in the season of varying temperatures and storm patterns, so we will see many types of these snow forms falling within the next month.


Check out this cool link to snowflake shapes and types: Caltech.edu/snowcrystals


Happy powder days, don't forget to smile!

commnet icon  1 Comment on "Snow, now wetter, should continue"

 

Jeff Wiles — February 26, 2008

I call the toilet bowl effect the "Gore Range Wrap Around" for the back bowl snow. Don't know what anyone else calls it. Thanks Reid

 

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Gusty winds, snow in the forecast
The RealVail weatherman hard at work.
 

Gusty winds, snow in the forecast

By Reid Griebling

February 22, 2008 —  High pressure that has been with us for almost two weeks will begin to dissolve as the jet stream axis moves towards the west bringing with it an active storm pattern through Monday. We will begin to see snow showers develop over the highest elevations late this afternoon as snow levels drop overnight.


We can expect to see 3-5 inches by Saturday morning with snow continuing through Saturday afternoon. This storm will bring with it gusty winds (30-40 mph) and temps will drop with the arrival of a weak cold front.


Temperatures will be mild (teens to 20s) considering a front will pass through. Warm temperatures will limit total snowfall due to light moisture and high dew points, but overall we should see some welcome snow on the ground Saturday.


Sunday a stronger low will move in from the west with better dynamics for accumulating snowfall. If temperatures stay cold we could see a powder day on Monday with anywhere from 5-10 inches on the ground by Monday morning.


Temperatures will cool again Saturday night as the next system approaches, but still fairly mild for the season (teens and 20's).


Happy snow-riding!

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Vail's President's Day weekend should be sunny
Very little precipitation is expected throughout Colorado this weekend, which means sunny skies and spring-skiing type conditions in the mountains.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service 

Vail's President's Day weekend should be sunny

By Reid Griebling

February 15, 2008 —  Hello all, and happy Presidents holiday.


I know many of you come to the valley annually this holiday weekend, and though we will not see any snow, it should be a great weekend.

We do have a slight chance for showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, but I wouldn't bet on it. The good news is, the temperatures will be perfect for February skiing. All weekend long we should see daytime temps in the mid 20's to the low thirties.


Overnight temps will be mild, ranging from the single digits into the teens. With the warm temps and abundant sunshine, we should see why Vail's "Legendary Back Bowls" are so legendary. After the noon hour everyday, the snow should soften a bit and give us some of that spring time mashed potato style skiing, making runs like Forever, Ricky's Ridge, and The Slot great.


If you are an early riser and like to get first chair, I would recommend finding a grooming report at the base of the area and stick to the groomers until the temps warm.


A couple of reminders for all of the snow-riders: Please be aware that this is a VERY busy weekend, a lot of people will be enjoying the snow, so please be careful and giver your fellow snow-riders plenty of room, also, please wear sunscreen, LOTS. As we like to say in the mountains, "Don't die, reapply.”


Have a great weekend.

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Snowstorm will bring less than 10 inches – but I hope I’m wrong
It'll be a Colorado Rocky Mountain High snow total if the current storm does what the Weather Channel says it will.
 

Snowstorm will bring less than 10 inches – but I hope I’m wrong

By Reid Griebling

February 7, 2008 —  Snowstorm will bring less than 10 inches – but I hope I’m wrong


As the saying goes, the only constant with the weather is that it always changes.  Two days ago the storm that is hitting us now was just a little blip on the map.


According to the National Weather Service this storm looks to pack a punch that could add to the already historical snow totals.  By this evening we should start to see some snow flying in the air with increased winds from the northwest.  As of this afternoon (12:10 p.m.) there was very little activity in our region, which made me wonder if we are going to incur the Weather Channel jinx. 

Now, however, the snow is flying. The Weather Channel is calling for more than a foot of snow over 7,000 feet to fall overnight, which makes me nervous that we might not see anything.  As of now this forecaster is going to stick to his Tuesday forecast and limit snow totals to under 10 inches.  I hope that I am wrong. 


As for this weekend, it should be a great couple of days for the Honda Session to take place at Golden Peak.  After this storm passes through, temperatures will begin to rise and we might even see that gigantic star we call the sun.  As I said, temperatures will be in the high 20s and low 30s through the weekend, making it an enjoyable spectator and athlete event. 


I, however, will be traveling to the home of one of my favorites, the late John Denver.


A group of guys are going to a little place called Asssspen for the weekend.  I hope there is still some freshness for us to gobble up.  Hope everyone gets to ski this weekend, and take the time to get over to the "East Side" and watch the athletes get their huck on.


Happy Snow-riding.

commnet icon  1 Comment on "Snowstorm will bring less than 10 inches – but I hope I’m wrong"

 

Linen Ladies — February 7, 2008

STOP WITH THE SNOW, ALREADY! WE'RE ALL GOING TO NEED THERAPY.... HAPPY TRAILS TO ASSSPEN............

 

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